The Youth Landscape in 2040: What Will Adolescent Nicotine Use Look Like?
In 2040, youth smoking will be near zero. Youth vaping will have stabilized at low levels. The primary youth nicotine concern will be novel products—nicotine analogs, synthetic formulations—that didn't exist in the 2020s.
By 2040, combustible cigarette use among youth in high-income countries will be close to zero—a generational triumph. Youth vaping will have stabilized at low levels—a residual behavior among a small minority. The primary youth nicotine concern will be novel products—nicotine analogs, synthetic formulations, delivery systems that don't exist yet. **The youth nicotine landscape of 2040 will be shaped by the policies written today. The policies being written today are shaped by the panic of the 2010s—not by a clear-eyed assessment of the future.**
