Nicotine 2035: A Speculative Forecast of the Industry a Decade From Now
Cigarette volumes: down 50% from today. Reduced-risk products: 60%+ of industry revenue. Major companies: diversified portfolios. Regulation: risk-proportionate, consumer-inclusive. The future is plausible—if the politics allow it.
By 2035, cigarette volumes in high-income countries will have declined by 50% or more. Reduced-risk products—vaping, pouches, heated tobacco—will generate the majority of industry revenue. The major companies will have largely completed their transition—or been replaced by competitors that did. Regulation will be risk-proportionate—distinguishing between products by risk—and consumer-inclusive—with mechanisms for nicotine users to participate in policy. **This forecast is plausible—technologically, economically, evidentially. The obstacle is not feasibility. It's politics.**
